Canmore Real Estate Market Predictions for 2026 and 2027
Canmore real estate market predictions to 2027: the supply pipeline, second-home demand, the Livability Tax, rates, and what would change the trajectory.
- Sales fell to 483 in 2025 from 504 in 2024. A second year of lower volume while prices rose.
- Inventory has rebuilt: about 133 active listings and three months of supply in July 2026, against average active inventory of roughly 129 through 2025.
- The Bank of Canada policy rate has held at 2.25% since 2025, with most major bank forecasts expecting it to stay there through 2026.
- New Three Sisters supply lands in the townhome and apartment segments first, so that is where price growth should slow soonest.
- The Livability Tax and the fixed tourist-home supply are policy variables that affect who buys, not just how much they pay.
Every Canmore market forecast has to answer one question honestly: is the town's decade of price growth a bubble or a supply problem? The evidence points to supply. Sales volume has fallen two years running while prices kept rising, which is what a constrained market looks like, not a speculative one. Here is where the Canmore real estate market stands in August 2026, what the pipeline looks like, and what the predictions for 2027 are actually built on.
Where the Canmore real estate market stands before any predictions
- Residential sales, 2025
- 483
- vs 504 in 2024, −4% (canmorealberta.com)
- Active listings, July 2026
- 133
- down from 159 a year earlier (Wahi)
- Median sold price, July 2026
- $1,084,950
- 46 sales; 68 days on market (Wahi)
- Months of inventory, July 2026
- 3
- historically tight but rebuilding (Wahi)
- Bank of Canada policy rate
- 2.25%
- held at the 15 July 2026 announcement
- Sell-to-list ratio, August 2026
- ≈99%
- Zolo, 28 days to 24 August 2026
The pattern is consistent across sources: fewer transactions, more choice than buyers had in 2021 to 2023, and prices that have flattened rather than fallen. Average active inventory through 2025 was about 129 listings, roughly a quarter of what the town carried in 2010, according to the local year-in-review, so "more inventory" is relative to a very low base.
What is happening by property type
The 2025 year-end numbers show a market moving at different speeds:
| Property type | 2025 average price | Change vs 2024 | Sales volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $2.15M | +8% | −7% |
| Half duplex | $1.92M | +16% | , |
| Townhouse | $1.15M | +8% | −4% |
| Hotel condo | $978,000 | +15% | +21% |
| Tourist home | $960,000 | +6% | −36% |
| Apartment | $814,000 | +8% | −11% |
Two things stand out. Hotel condos were the only segment with rising volume, driven largely by new development. And tourist-home sales fell 36%, the clearest market signal yet that buyers repriced the risk after the March 2025 bylaw change ended new tourist-home use and the tax treatment settled.
The supply pipeline through 2027
This is the biggest structural change since the town was founded. The approved Three Sisters Village and Smith Creek plans allow up to 7,000 homes and 15,000 people on more than 300 hectares. But the delivery schedule matters more than the total.
- 12026: servicing and first permitsThe Town approved 249 apartment units on Village Road in June 2026 and 94 stacked townhomes on Yarrow Road that same month, with 76 more units under review.
- 22026–2027: first completionsConstruction of homes and a wildlife underpass under the Trans-Canada was expected to get underway from 2026. Employee housing at The Gateway adds 150 beds anticipated in 2027.
- 3Within five years: Smith Creek phase oneDevelopment there cannot begin until the wildlife underpass is complete. The developer told CBC in October 2025 it should finish within about five years.
- 4Beyond: five further Three Sisters Village phasesIncluding a hotel district, innovation district and village centre. This is a multi-decade build, not a supply shock.
Meanwhile the rest of the town keeps adding units in smaller increments: 112 apartment units approved at 1800 Spring Creek Gate, 120 rental-tenure units at 1651 Palliser Trail, a 70-unit building at 300 Mountain Tranquility Gate in Silvertip, and 156 visitor accommodation units at 300 William Street. The new developments page tracks the active projects.
Demand: the part that has not changed
Three structural sources of demand keep a floor under Canmore real estate.
Banff cannot absorb it. Only eligible residents may live in Banff housing under Parks Canada's need-to-reside rules, and you cannot buy land there. It is leased from Parks Canada. Demand that would otherwise land in Banff arrives in Canmore instead. See the Banff real estate page.
Second-home buyers are still here. About 26% of Canmore properties are owned by people who do not live in them full time, and the Town's own census data shows 2,369 of 9,173 private dwellings were not occupied by usual residents in 2021.
Land is finite. Canmore is a valley floor between two mountain ranges and a national park. Beyond the Three Sisters lands there is very little to develop.
Policy: the wildcard
Rates matter, but policy has moved this market more than rates over the past two years.
The Livability Tax adds roughly 0.377% of assessed value annually on dwellings that are not a primary residence, but 2026 provincial legislation exempts any property with an Alberta-resident owner on title. That reshapes the buyer pool rather than the price level: it discourages out-of-province second-home buyers specifically. The federal foreign-buyer ban runs to 1 January 2027 and applies in Canmore, with the exemptions set out in can non-Canadians buy property in Canmore. And the fixed tourist-home supply means existing tourist homes are a closed set, which supports their value but also concentrates the tax cost.
The predictions, stated plainly
Three predictions, in order of likelihood. Base case for the next eighteen months: flat to modestly higher prices town-wide, with condos and townhomes flattest as new supply lands, detached homes holding on scarcity, and the $2M-plus market slow and negotiable but not cheap. Volume should recover gradually from the 2025 low as inventory gives buyers something to buy.
The downside case requires a rate move or a broader Alberta slowdown; note that Calgary's benchmark price was down 2% year over year in July 2026 (CREB), so the regional backdrop is not strong. The upside case is a rate cut cycle meeting an inventory drop, which is exactly what produced 2021.
Compare the monthly detail in the August 2026 market report and the longer-run predictions on the forecast page.
What this means if you're buying
Treat Canmore real estate market predictions, including the ones on this page, as a read on direction rather than a reason to wait. Do not try to time the bottom of a market with 483 annual sales. You will not see it coming and you will not beat it. Buy when the property and the financing work. Seasonality is a separate question, and the best time of year to buy in Canmore answers it. What you should do is use the conditions this market gives you: take the inspection, take the financing condition, read the condo documents properly, and negotiate. If you are looking at a townhome or condo, recognise that several hundred new units are heading for exactly your segment over the next few years, and let that inform what you are willing to pay today. If you want a detached family home, the supply argument runs the other way.
A local REALTOR® can pull sold Canmore real estate data for the property type and neighbourhood you're actually shopping. Free 15-minute call.
Frequently asked
Will Canmore house prices go down in 2027?
A broad decline is possible but not the base case. Supply is rebuilding and volumes are below their peak, which caps price growth, but Canmore's constrained land, second-home demand and Banff's ownership rules keep a floor under it. The most likely outcome is flat to modestly higher prices with real softness in specific segments rather than an across-the-board fall.
Is Canmore in a buyer's market or a seller's market?
Somewhere in between, and it depends on the segment. July 2026 showed roughly three months of inventory town-wide, which is historically tight, but active listings rose sharply against 2025 and the median sale came in slightly below asking. Entry-level condos remain competitive; the top of the market is slow and negotiable.
Will Three Sisters Mountain Village crash Canmore prices?
No. The approved plans allow up to 7,000 homes over decades, but delivery is staged and the first phases are townhomes, stacked townhomes and apartments. Against a market of under 500 sales a year that is meaningful pressure on the middle of the market and very little pressure on detached homes or the luxury end.
What would actually change the Canmore forecast?
Two things. A material move in interest rates, since second-home buyers are rate-sensitive and often financing discretionary purchases. And a policy change. The Livability Tax rules, the federal foreign-buyer ban, or any further amendment to tourist-home use. Each of which changes who is allowed to buy rather than what they can afford.
Is now a good time to buy in Canmore?
Better than the last three years for choice and negotiating room, because inventory has rebuilt from very low levels. It is not a discount market. The practical advantage right now is time. You can view several comparable properties and include conditions rather than waiving them, which was not realistic in 2021 and 2022.