Canmore Real Estate Forecast

Every Canmore real estate forecast you will read is either a sales pitch or a guess, so we will be explicit about which parts of this one are which. What follows is a set of scenarios for late 2026 and 2027 built from the things that are actually known: approved supply, the Bank of Canada’s stated path, the Livability Tax rules, the foreign-buyer ban’s expiry date and current sales and inventory, with the indicators that would tell you which scenario is playing out. It is written for buyers deciding whether to act now or wait, not for anyone trying to time a peak.

Policy rate

2.25%

Bank of Canada · held 15 July 2026 · sixth consecutive hold

Months of inventory

≈ 3

July 2026 · Wahi · balanced

TSMV Phase 1

700–1,075 homes

incl. 400+ rentals · first completions from 2026

Second homes

26%

of Canmore properties · 2021 Census via CBC

Foreign-buyer ban ends

1 Jan 2027

no extension tabled as of July 2026 · BLG

Livability Tax

≈ 0.4%/yr

of assessed value · non-Albertan non-primary homes · 2026

Where the Canmore real estate forecast starts from

Canmore enters the forecast period in balance. Prices rose about 8% across most property types in 2025 while sales fell 4% to 483; inventory averaged 129 listings, a quarter of the 2010 level (canmorealberta.com). By July 2026 the median sale was $1,084,950, homes took 68 days to sell, and active listings were 133 to 160 depending on the count, roughly three months of supply (Wahi; REW). The market overview has the full picture. The short version: nothing is overheating, and nothing is breaking.

Supply: the first real change in a generation

For twenty years the Canmore story has been a fixed number of homes and a growing number of people who want them. That is changing on three fronts.

Three Sisters Village. The approved Area Structure Plans for Three Sisters Village and Smith Creek allow up to roughly 7,000 homes for 15,000 people over decades. Phase 1 alone is 700–1,075 units on 29.1 hectares: townhomes, stacked townhomes, apartments and tourist homes, with more than 400 purpose-built rentals and at least 10% affordable housing. The developer’s May 2026 update reports more than 50 affordable units at the development-permit stage, 50 employee-housing beds built at The Gateway and 150 more under construction for 2027. First residential completions are expected from 2026, ramping through 2027–2028. Details on the new developments page and the Three Sisters Village guide.

Tourist-home conversions. Since 11 March 2025 no new properties can be zoned Tourist Home, and existing owners can convert to Residential with fees waived until 31 December 2026. Each conversion moves a unit from the nightly-rental stock into the resale condo market. Expect a cluster of conversions and listings before the deadline.

The inventory rebuild. Listings that would have been absorbed in a week in 2022 now sit for two months. Even without new construction, the buyer’s choice has roughly doubled from the 2023 low.

Demand: who is still buying

Demand in Canmore is unusual because most of it is not local. About 26% of properties are owned by people who do not live here full-time (2021 Census via CBC), and much of that is Calgary money. Calgary’s market has softened. The total residential benchmark was $569,200 in July 2026, down 2% year over year, with sales 9% lower (CREB), which trims the equity Calgarians bring, but does not remove it.

Banff’s need-to-reside rule continues to push demand east: only eligible residents may live there, and a leasehold cannot be a second home, so the Banff buyer becomes a Canmore buyer. Remote and hybrid work keeps the Calgary commute workable at two or three days a week. And the full-time population keeps growing slowly, 17,341 in 2025, up 10.4% over five years (Alberta Regional Dashboard), with a 2023 living wage of $38.80 an hour, the last year Canmore participated that tells you the local market alone cannot support current prices, demand, in short, is deep but rate-sensitive and policy-sensitive at the margin.

Rates: stable, not falling

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on 15 July 2026, its sixth consecutive hold, after the cuts of 2025. Inflation was 3.2% in May on fuel prices; the Bank expects it back near 2% in early 2027 and projects GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. A majority of economists surveyed before the decision expected no change until at least mid-2027 (CBC). For buyers that means fixed mortgage rates roughly where they are now: cheaper than 2023, dearer than 2021, and not a reason to wait. Lenders still want 25–35% down on short-term-rental purchases; see the mortgage guide.

Policy: the tax and the ban

The Livability Tax is charged for the first time on 2026 tax notices, about 0.377% of assessed value a year on homes that are not a primary residence, but 2026 provincial legislation exempts any property with an Alberta-resident owner on title. Its effect on demand is therefore concentrated on Ontario, B.C. And international second-home buyers, who are a minority of the market. Expect it to shave a little from the top end and to push a few non-Albertan owners to sell or rent long-term; not enough to move the median.

The federal foreign-buyer ban expires 1 January 2027. As of July 2026 no extension or replacement had been tabled, and the housing minister had signalled interest in an Australian-style regime with exemptions for new construction (BLG). If the ban lapses or is loosened for new builds, the marginal buyer arrives for Three Sisters Village product and luxury homes, and still pays the Livability Tax. Tourist-home taxation at 0.832% of assessed value all in, about 1.8 times the primary-residence rate remains the biggest policy drag on the STR segment.

Three scenarios for 2026–2027

The probabilities are our judgement from the sourced inputs above, not a statistical model, and no published Canmore real estate forecast puts odds on a market this small. The point is the indicator set, not the odds.

Outlook by property type

Indicators to watch each month

• Active listings above 200 for two consecutive months would signal the soft case.
• Days on market above 90 town-wide, or above 120 for condos, ditto.
• Bank of Canada moves. The next scheduled announcements are 2 September and 28 October 2026, the October one alongside the Monetary Policy Report, with the year’s last on 9 December (Bank of Canada).
• Federal legislation on the foreign-buyer ban before 1 January 2027.
• Three Sisters Village occupancy permits and pre-sale pace.
• Tourist-home conversion counts reported by the Town before the 31 December 2026 fee-waiver deadline.

What this means if you’re buying

If you are buying a home to live in or use, the base case of this Canmore real estate forecast says today’s balanced market is a reasonable entry: choose the segment carefully, negotiate on listings past 60 days, and keep your financing and inspection conditions. If you are buying to invest, model flat prices and buy only on cash flow. The Canmore investment property guide shows why yields are thin at these prices. If you are out of province, price the Livability Tax in from day one. And whatever you buy, watch the six indicators above; they will tell you which scenario is unfolding long before the headlines do. The August 2026 report is the current reading.